Research

As the market appears to be taking a rest and consolidating its $2.7 trillion rally leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, the historical pattern over the last five years suggests the shortened holiday week typically enjoys modest gains.

One of the unchecked items is market breadth. Despite the recent rally, participation in the latest rebound has been underwhelming, raising questions over the sustainability of the advance. Second, 10-year Treasury yields remain in an uptrend, and until more technical evidence confirms the highs have been set, it may be challenging for stocks to maintain their upside momentum.

It’s been another volatile year for municipal (muni) investors this year. While generally outperforming U.S. Treasuries, the Bloomberg Muni Index is on track for its second calendar year of negative returns something that has never happened before.

It’s a tradition here to write about what scares us around Halloween each year.

Despite headwinds, the U.S. could experience structural changes in the labor market, residential real estate, and inflation as the post-pandemic economy progresses into the New Year.